Phd Thesis On Global Warming

Phd Thesis On Global Warming-14
Fulfilling the growing demand for food while maintaining or even expanding forests as a climate mitigation strategy requires substantial agricultural intensification.In MAg PIE, investments into yield-increasing research and development (R&D) are modelled endogenously, and all simulation relied on this option.More than 400 million hectares (Mha) of cropland may be newly established between 20.

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It additionally focuses specifically on tropical biodiversity hotspots and methods to conserve them through the designation of protected areas and agricultural intensification.

Furthermore, it considers the carbon sequestration potential of large-scale afforestation and its potential effect on food prices.

The study employs a global economic land-use model to assess potential future developments.

The Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAg PIE) produces patterns of global land use for a given demand for agricultural products by minimising costs of agricultural production.

Especially when afforestation competed with agricultural production for the same areas, high yield increases were necessary in tropical developing countries.

These findings highlight the importance of the intensification of pasture areas, which has often been neglected.

To analyse the research questions at hand, the model was modified and amended in several aspects.

This thesis shows that the assumed increase in demand for agricultural products will lead to an expansion of croplands, at least until the middle of the century.

African pasture intensification seems particularly key to limit the conversion of forests and other natural vegetation.

This thesis also shows that besides offering a large CO removal potential, afforestation can limit the regional self-sufficiency in food production and could have severe consequences for food prices.


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